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Integrating economic simulation models with whole-farm system models for ex ante technology impact assessment

Code: 9781786765215
John M. Antle, Oregon State University, USA

Chapter synopsis: The key analytical challenge to developing agricultural system models is to predict the behavior of agricultural systems in the multiple dimensions that are relevant to their economic, environmental and social sustainability, under recent historically observed conditions and when they are modified to improve their performance. This chapter examines ex ante technology impact assessment, defined as forward-looking efforts at technology design and evaluation. Supported by a case study, the chapter discusses methods to combine process-based and economic production models to overcome some of the limitations of each approach. Finally, the chapter looks ahead to future research trends in this area, and provides detailed guidance on further reading.

DOI: 10.19103/AS.2019.0061.14
Table of contents 1 Introduction 2 Modelling whole-farm systems for sustainability research 3 The ex ante impact evaluation paradigm 4 Implications of the economic evaluation paradigm for agricultural system modelling 5 Evaluating novel and future systems using hybrid structural models 6 Case study: a hybrid structural model of the wheat-fallow system in the US Pacific Northwest 7 The data challenge for agricultural systems modelling 8 Future trends 9 Conclusion 10 Where to look for further information 11 References

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